Sunday, December 8, 2019

Why Electric Cars and Autonomous Vehicles are Gonna be Badass. A vision from the Year 2040.

Okay, close your eyes.

No dont do that. But go ahead and imagine this:

20 years from now, AI and Electric vehicles come into their own. 

ENERGY

Battery technology has advanced to the point where they superceded the specific energy of fossil fuels. Fusion has hit past break-even and is slowly but surely becoming widespread. Until dissemination has occurred with Fusion, renewables like solar and wind as well as the intermediary nuclear tech - Thorium Molten Salt Reactors - pick up the slack and provide more energy than anyone can possibly imagine. Electricity is cents on the US Dollar or less. Decentralized infrastructure and economies of scale allowed by renewables and technological advance has made energy production on both small and large scale something amazing to behold. 

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

Quantum Computing has advanced considerably. It is nothing now for a large firm to have a few thousand qubits for large scale cloud computing. Google is the main player in the field with their main Quantum Computer pushing 100,000 Qubits. Everything from error correction to isolation have found reasonable solutions.

Consumer tech isnt quite ready for quantum, since the infrastructure to maintain it is comparable to the days of ENIAC, but on a different level. It's okay though; advances in network technology have made quantum cloud computing a common technology that several people and companies have taken advantage of in many different aspects of life.

In any case, advances in microprocessor technology has allowed us to continue increasing the power of classical computers, since engineers discovered a way to make quantum tunneling, which plagued older processors, into an asset instead of a liability. Things are cheaper to build. Shit is FAST. Computing has entered its second golden age, according to TIME Magazine.

AI researchers have taken advantage of this boon in computer technology, and have created software the likes of which has never been seen. Great leaps in machine vision, problem solving, learning and so on has made a bunch of different tangential technological leaps in medicine, science, materials engineering, etc. Singulartarians are shitting themselves. It's a much bigger movement than it was in the early 2010s - 2020s. They think general AI is tantalizingly close, and with it the Singularity. Serious minded computer scientists scoff at the idea, citing that while they can create extremely complex AI now, general AI is still a ways off, and theres no guarantee that a Singularity scenario is even possible. However, there are many researchers who carry their Singulatarian cards, and are also shitting their pants in anticipation.

Phones are thin. Stupid thin. And powerful. And sturdy. Broken screens are more or less an issue grandpa dealt with. Literally billions of transistors can fit on a thin film the size of your thumbnail. You could run Crysis on it. At this point, people dont give a shit about Crysis. They're too busy with their incredible, increasingly immersive VR games. RealDolls are fucking amazing. As a result, the paltry birth rate in the United States and other developed countries rival Japan. Yeah social things are a lot different with convincingly complex AI, powered by powerful quantum cloud computing. Androids are like, shit, about one third of what Data from TNG was. And furthermore, TECHNICALLY FEASIBLE.

They casually play with the more comfortable end of the Uncanny Valley. And Boston Dynamics robots KICK ASS now. No seriously, they kick some serious ass, being deployed all over the world in small numbers alongside their human counterparts by the United States Military.

Needless to say, automation became a big ass issue. Andrew Yang was right. Fortunately, we elected him (I know, I know, just roll with it if you're not YangGang like me) and he served his two terms admirably. Starting in 2024 (He was the hero we needed, but not what we were ready for.) This was a great time for America. People who became job displaced by the AI and computer revolution found their way and were successful, by and large. Big thanks to the Freedom Dividend. Capitalism took a great turn for The People.

Okay moving right along.

AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY

With the rise of clean, cheap energy and strong AI, 20 years from now Autonomous electric vehicles have transformed the way we travel. Tesla, Chevy and some new players dominate the space. Tesla is mby far the largest. They were ready for this.

Tesla, of course have charger stations in every city. You cant travel more than 5 miles without seeing one. But, the big thing you see just as often are Tesla Hubs. These are places that hold and maintain a veritable army of Autonomous vehicles that are readily called upon by consumers for their everyday transportation needs.

And now for our final scenario.

You're at your house. You log off from your Employee Portal where you provide drafting services for various land  surveying companies. AI hasn't quite caught up with the with that yet.

You need to go to the grocery store. Shit. You're outta bread and some other stuff. You could go ahead use Walmart's Auto Fulfillment services and have the groceries taken to you, but you could stand to get out if the house and pick the stuff yourself.

You're old fashioned like that.

You pull out your iPhone 23XL, and open the UBERXTesla transport services app. You order a vehicle and within five minutes a Tesla model Z7 pulls up. As you approach the door, it rolls up. It doesnt OPEN. It fricken rolls up INTO THE CAR.

As you get in, the door rolls down and a cool female voice chimes,

"Good evening Mr. Smith, where can we take you today?"

You're a mumbler, but you respond, "take me tothe walmrt in gainesville".

"Walmart in Gainesville, Texas, correct Mr. Smith?" The car says.

"Yes" you say nonchalantly.

The seatbelt comfortably passes over your midsection, the car backs out of your driveway, and you're on your way.

After your shopping is done, you ping the car on your app andthe car comes to the front door, ascertaining your location via advanced network triangulation.

You get in, and you get home.

"1.50 USD Coin has been debited from your exchange wallet. Thank you for choosing UBERXTesla. Have a productive day."

Okay, so maybe I took a little liscence with some of this. But this could reflect the future we will find ourselves in. One where automation and convenience had brought forth game changers.

Keep thinking.







Sunday, November 10, 2019

Why Asteroid Mining is Gonna Be Epic.

If you think space is awesome, and you think mining asteroids for precious minerals is freaking amazing, you're not amazed enough.

Right now, there are estimates that suggest that an asteroid mining operation could cost upwards of 2.5 billion dollars. However, when compared to the costs of doing it here on Earth, the prices are not as far off as expected.

Dont believe me? Read this:

 https://physicsworld.com/a/the-asteroid-trillionaires/

Anyway, you're not amazed enough. Why? Because theres one thing you're not thinking about. Well, maybe you are thinking about it.

Imagine with me for a moment. It is the Year 2050. Several asteroid mining companies in the past 30 years have not only demonstrated the feasibility of mining asteroids, but they have also put in the time, energy and research that made the relevant economies of scale possible.

They're not only mining asteroids of gold, platinum and other minerals. They are doing it cheaply and effectively. They've been doing it for years.

As a result, they have flooded the marketplace with an abundance of resources. Theres so much gold that Midas himself has penis envy.

That's the future. It is a future where going to the store and buying a reel of plastic coated pure gold wire for your electronics project will cost you twenty bucks. All of those applications in science for gold and platinum? Not only is it cheap and available, these materials are the superior replacements for traditionally utilized materials.

It is a future where proposing to your girlfriend/boyfriend/partner with a 12 dollar pure gold wedding band might not only be possible, but make you look cheap. Gold is a great conductor, sure. But Rhodium is forever. That metal is probably running the same price as gold does today, but it's also hella hard to work with and requires jewelers with some serious equipment to get that shit shaped into a wedding ring. Jesus, hypothetical "proposer", get your shit together.

What I'm saying is that as we move forward with quantum computing,  AI, digital currencies, medicine and a slew of other emerging technologies, we will find that mining in space will have a pretty interesting effect on how we percieve the values of resources traditionally considered precious. 

One might consider it one possible facet of a larger possible phenomenon: Post-Scarcity.

As a tangential aside to this little blog post, I wanna go on record to say that overcoming scarcity at a global level might be naive. After all, every resource is limited, and that it is simply our ability to access large amounts of a resource cheaply that does in fact make it easier for it to feel the economic effects of deflating value.

I think a better way to put it would be The Asymptotic Approach to Negligible Scarcity Via Increasingly Financial Efficaciousness of Resource Acquisition.

To be honest... Post-Scarcity is easier to tote about in everyday conversation.